Gemalto or Gelato?

Just as we are limbering up with that most dire of feelings “back to school” it seemed appropriate to pick on some of the worst situations – on a fundamental basis, of the recent past. Perhaps one thing to remember here is that being in a phony extended bull market, which is so complacent it has not fear of a random nuclear missile threat, seems to make corporate failure all the more painful when it occurs.

Acacia Mining (ACA):
Acacia’s run in with the Tanzanian Government seems worthy of what one might get in Zimbabwe, or the way that South Africa appears to be heading. In the meantime we see the stock retreat in the worst possible fashion chart wise – in a step down fashion. What is not a good look at the moment is the way the stock has just backed off the top of a March falling trend channel at 201p. Below this risks a 150p zone retest at best, and a worst case move to 50p at the floor of the channel.

Carillion (CLLN):
It should have been the case that after the horrific dive in Carillion shares we were treated to a rather more intense dead cat bounce than eventually materialised. What can be seen currently is the way that the shares have settled into a rather slow moving progression within a mildly descending price channel. This can be drawn in from as long ago as the end of June and is some 20p wide. The support line projection is heading for 35p, and this is the notional technical target while the stock remains above the top of the channel at 55p.

Gemalto (GTO):
It beggars belief that Gemalto can still be making such a pig’s ear of its life on the stock market, especially when the group should have kitchen sinked the bad news well before last week’s update. Indeed, it is very disappointing that the previously mentioned support line at €42 did not hold after the initial rebound. That said, die hard fans of the stock will note how there should be very strong support now at €37 which is the floor of a multi year falling trend channel. In fact, if this was almost any other company other than Gemalto one would suggest that an interim rebound back to €42 is due over the next few weeks.

Provident Financial (PFG):
Those who suspect the worst is over for doorstep lender Provident Financial may be correct on a fundamental view. However, the latest charting picture from this horror movie is that the shares have just failed at their 10 day moving average now at 612p. Below this risks a retest of the worst levels of last month below 400p, although one shirks away from getting more negative than such a price for now.